There is nothing inherently menacing or antidemocratic about conspiracy theories. They can even be a source of amusement. The trouble comes when political elites weaponize them to invite violence.
July 2024
The first conspiracy theories started ricocheting around the internet within minutes of the assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump. With the backdrop of a heated political campaign, extreme political polarization, and an unfettered social-media ecosystem, such a momentous event — the first time a current or former president has been wounded in an assassination attempt since 1981 — was bound to stir up political passions. Landing at this moment in U.S. history, though, it has the potential to turn the tenor of political discourse exceptionally dark, with serious antidemocratic implications.
Conspiracy theories are not necessarily antidemocratic. People are naturally inclined to seek out simple explanations in a complex world, which can restore one’s sense of control. Conspiracy theories can be a source of amusement and fun — a form of participatory storytelling, especially if done collectively. In articulating suspicion of powerful people, who are imagined to be conniving at the expense of the common good, conspiracy theories can be an imperfect way to hold corrupt elites accountable or call attention to flaws in the political system.
When it comes to politics, the formation of coalitions and sustained criticism of political adversaries are integral to democratic competition. If negative campaigning was not an effective way to win votes, politicians wouldn’t engage in it. Sometimes politicians’ (poll-tested) rhetoric is heated, unfair, untrue, or just plain mean. The distance from making exaggerated accusations against political rivals to promoting conspiracy claims against them may be only a matter of degree rather than of kind. Such tactics may be unpleasant, but in the hypercompetitive world of electoral politics they are often considered part of the game.
Conspiratorial appeals may also succeed politically, especially among voters who are disillusioned with the status quo. After all, corruption is a fact of life in many countries. People who have lived under corrupt regimes or perceive the system as rigged may see conspiracy theories as a reasonable approximation of reality.
Amid a presidential campaign as intense as the 2024 U.S. race, it was to be expected that the assassination attempt would produce political conspiracy theories. They have in the past. From the left, Trump was accused of masterminding a “false flag” operation — the idea that he staged his own near-assassination in order to gain sympathy or blame Democrats. From the right, the dominant conspiracy narrative saw the attack as one inflicted by Trump’s enemies, with various versions of the culprit: his opponent, current president Joe Biden, Democrats, the deep state, or a more amorphous but menacing “they.”
It must be said that there is no evidence for any of these claims. Furthermore, in the first week after the attack, there was no evidence linking the shooter to any political ideology. Yet, consistent with the appearance of popular conspiracy theories in recent years, these assertions tap into a reservoir of extreme partisanship by positing that members of the opposing party are wicked and willing to use violence to achieve their aims. This comes at a time when surveys indicate worryingly high numbers of people who believe that the use of violence is legitimate to advance partisan goals.
At a time of actual political violence in United States, conspiracy theories can make an already volatile situation more dangerous. They will continue to spread widely online, especially as social-media platforms have pulled back on moderating content. The key question in the run-up to election day in November 2024 is whether political elites on either side embrace a conspiracy theory that invites retaliation.
The 2020 election demonstrated how people exposed to a barrage of disinformation might come to sincerely believe that their values are under threat, and how a minority of that group could then be provoked to act, even taking up arms, to protect their country. If Democratic Party elites were to promote the claim that Donald Trump had staged the attempt on his life, it is conceivable that committed Trump opponents could be motivated to use violence as well. Violent and accusatory rhetoric on either side increases the likelihood of “stochastic terrorism,” the type of one-off incident that is hard to foresee and prevent, just like the shooting on July 13.
The critical question when it comes to the prospects for further political violence is the extent to which political elites embrace and weaponize these conspiracy theories. While most political elites reserved judgment about the shooter’s motives and called for calm in the immediate aftermath, some did not. If political leaders aren’t moved to show greater forbearance, the risk of violence will surely escalate.
The United States today remains a raucous democracy with a diverse and open media, yet it is a country riven by extreme distrust and polarization. This is a context highly conducive to the spread of conspiracy theories, and indeed they have been flourishing for years, becoming ever present in the background noise of American politics. Although they are usually innocuous, there are times when they can be wielded to undermine mutual toleration, facilitate illiberal actions, and provoke deadly violence. Whether this will happen again in 2024 is an open question, but the opportunity lurks like a loaded weapon.
Scott Radnitz is Herbert J. Ellison Professor of Russian and Eurasian Studies in the Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington. He is the author of Revealing Schemes: The Politics of Conspiracy in Russia and the Post-Soviet Region (2021) and coeditor of Enemies Within: The Global Politics of Fifth Columns (2022).
Copyright © 2024 National Endowment for Democracy
Image credit: Rick Loomis/Getty Images
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