Why This Time Is Different for Venezuela

For years, the Venezuelan opposition has fought hard against a corrupt regime — and come up short. But this time, with four key ingredients in place, we are on the cusp of a historic victory.

By Paola Bautista de Aleman

July 2024

On July 28, Venezuelans will vote for their next president. Although the campaign conditions are not remotely free or fair, the opposition has overcome enormous challenges to put a genuine victory in grasp. In the election’s homestretch, the opposition alliance’s presidential candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, and its national leader, María Corina Machado (MCM), are holding campaign rallies with thousands of people around the country. In a democracy, these rallies would be considered normal. In a dictatorship, they are heroic acts that show Venezuelan citizens’ deep desire for change. Venezuelans are on the cusp of an extraordinary opportunity to vote and restore democracy in our country.

The last quarter-century has been one of struggle. For more than two decades, Venezuelan society has resisted the authoritarian advance, first of Hugo Chávez and then of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. The opposition has tried relentlessly to reestablish democracy through different strategies and approaches — in the 2013 presidential election, the 2015 parliamentary elections, the massive protests in 2017, the negotiations between the opposition and the government in the Dominican Republic in 2018, and the creation of the interim government in 2019. Although each of these moments was a milestone, we nevertheless have come up short in reestablishing democracy.

This time, things are different. Citizens are rallying behind MCM, who was banned from running in January, and González. The two have formed a united front against Maduro’s bid for a third term. Nobody has any illusions about how the Maduro regime has tilted the playing field in its favor by manipulating the electoral system, using state-security forces to repress citizens, denying Venezuelans abroad the right to vote, and blocking international electoral observation missions, including the European Union’s, from entering the country. Still, even if this election won’t be conducted fairly, there are at least four reasons why González can still win.

1.) The opposition is united. MCM has put forth a single candidate, González, who is supported by a huge coalition of political parties called the Democratic Unitary Platform. The country’s highest court may have barred MCM from running, but that has not stopped her from touring the country by car and campaigning in front of massive crowds of supporters. The current political scenario seemed unthinkable a few months ago. Now the country is united, mobilized, and supported by the international community.

2.) The opposition has a winning candidate, and a country that knows it. The country’s main pollsters show that González currently holds more than a twenty-point lead over Maduro. Turnout is expected to be between 72 and 77 percent — much higher than in the 2018 presidential election (45.7 percent) and even the 1998 election that first catapulted Chávez to power (63.8 percent). In previous elections, when opposition voters were asked if they thought their candidate could win, they said no. Not so this time. Nearly eight out of ten Venezuelans who plan to vote for González believe that he will be the next president of the country. The people are optimistic, and they are determined to cast their ballots.

3.) The people are fed up with autocracy and not afraid to fight it. Throughout the electoral campaign, the odds have been stacked against the opposition, which has had to operate with few resources amid Maduro’s efforts to repress the movement. Its electoral base spans both rural and urban areas, and is supported by the nation’s poorest citizens. Maduro’s regime has devastated the country. The National Survey of Living Conditions, carried out annually by the Andrés Bello Catholic University, revealed in its latest study that more than 59 percent of all Venezuelans live in extreme poverty, and this figure surges to more than 71 percent in rural areas. Poverty has been driving Venezuelans to flee the country; according to UNHCR, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans are now living abroad.

MCM’s campaign is not just political; it is a social movement of brave people that persists with little money and no protection. The political persecution has been brutal. Four leaders of the national-campaign team are refugees inside the Argentine Embassy in Caracas, and two more are imprisoned. Local activists, too, have been harassed, punished, and imprisoned. Since the campaign officially began on July 4, 77 people have been arrested for political reasons, and roads that MCM and González have traveled have sometimes been blocked.

The harassment is not new; what is new is the breakdown of consent. The complacency that enabled Chavismo-Madurismo for decades has faded away. And the autocrats’ mechanisms of social control — barring candidates, arresting campaigners, blocking roads, intimidating supporters — have lost their effectiveness. Venezuelans have lost their fear.

Take the Hernández sisters: Corina and Elys, two empanada sellers in a small town far from Caracas, sold some empanadas to MCM when she was on the campaign trail a few weeks ago. Afterward, the regime shut down their business. The sisters posted this injustice on social media, disobeyed, and reopened their shop under a mango tree. Their disobedience went viral, and they have since sold more empanadas than ever before. Maduro’s crackdowns have only mobilized the opposition and invigorated people’s support for MCM. Though discreet and gradual at first, Venezuelans’ defiance has gained momentum. As the election gets closer, it might become unstoppable.

4.) The opposition is organized and prepared to defend its victory. To ensure a democratic outcome on July 28, Venezuelans must defend the democratic process. The risk of fraud is real. The history of abuses and irregularities in the Venezuelan electoral system is extensive. Perhaps the most notorious was the fraud that took place in the state of Bolívar in the 2017 regional elections. Andrés Velázquez, the opposition candidate, won the election, yet the National Electoral Council handed the victory to the Chavismo candidate regardless.

But the opposition has since built a strong team of vote defenders who will monitor each polling station to guarantee that the law and the will of Venezuelans is respected. On election day, the opposition will place 30,026 voting stations in polling places across the country. We will have more than 90,000 election watchers manning the polls. In addition, MCM has created a special election-monitoring unit called the comanditos. These are groups of ten people who will be stationed at the voting centers to accompany and support the electoral witnesses. Earlier this month, the opposition had signed up more than 58,300 comanditos throughout the country. All in all, the opposition’s voter-defense team consists of more than 650,000 people.

The task will not be easy. The defenders will likely face serious abuse in their efforts to defend the people’s desire for change. Such organizational capacity from the opposition is rare in countries with longstanding dictatorships. But Venezuela was once one of Latin America’s most stable democracies, with a rich democratic culture and electoral tradition, before the Chávez-Maduro autocracy ascended in 1998. That democratic legacy left an indelible mark on our political parties, a tradition that informs our struggle even today.

The opposition has achieved something nearly impossible: a unitary candidate, a lead in the polls, a heroic campaign, and an organizational structure geared to defend its victory. These four facts make this election the one that could finally end the cruel era of Chavismo-Madurismo. But Venezuela is not a democracy; there is still uncertainty, and no guarantee of success. Indeed, Maduro is willing to engage in outright fraud to steal the election. At the end of the day, the Venezuelan people have shown their cards. If Maduro and his cabal choose to violate the results, then they will have to show their most vile face.

Paola Bautista de Aleman is a Venezuelan academic, political activist, and member of the National Board of Primero Justicia and president of the FORMA Institute.

Copyright © 2024 National Endowment for Democracy

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