October 2024, Volume 35, Issue 4
After thirty years of ANC dominance, the 2024 elections have ushered in multiparty politics in South Africa. Will the party’s centrist shift be enough to stop its descent, or is it destined to fracture further?
July 2024, Volume 35, Issue 3
There is a troubling tension around “people power” in Africa today: African social movements are among the most successful at ousting autocrats. But the continent’s entrenched antidemocratic institutions leave these victories highly vulnerable to reversal.
April 2024, Volume 35, Issue 2
Praetorian politics are not making a comeback. Africa’s recent putsches have more to do with democracy’s failure to deliver than any fondness for military rule.
April 2024, Volume 35, Issue 2
Violence need not be lethal to pose a threat to democracy. Indeed, low-scale violence has proven to be a far more effective means of manipulating elections.
April 2024, Volume 35, Issue 2
Malawi is a “hard place” for democracy—its economy struggles and state capacity is weak. So how has it avoided the pitfalls that have doomed so many others?
October 2023, Volume 34, Issue 4
When Africa’s leaders act undemocratically, they face an unexpected opponent—the power of the pulpit. Within civil society, church leaders and their faithful have become leading defenders of liberal democracy.
April 2022, Volume 33, Issue 2
The country’s struggles with crime and corruption led many to tag it as a near-failed state. Yet the Rainbow Nation is in fact an unexpected success story, with a political landscape that is growing more vibrant and diverse.
January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1
Halting a decade of democratic backsliding, Haikainde Hichilema defeated an increasingly iron-fisted incumbent president. How did he do it and can others learn from his example?
July 2021, Volume 32, Issue 3
The latest survey wave finds Africans with a still-robust demand for democratic governance, unblunted by covid or Chinese influence. Can governments deliver?
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
With brutal resolve, the ruling party sought not merely to win an election, but to annihilate the opposition. Now, with President John Magufuli gone, that strategic rationale will likely only grow stronger.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
While many blamed President John Magufuli for throwing the country off its democratizing track, the truth is that the party that has ruled Tanzania for six decades has always been authoritarian.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
Longtime president Yoweri Museveni, his ruling party, and his increasingly militarized regime opened 2021 with a grossly unfair election. But time may be on the side of Uganda’s young voters and their hunger for change.
October 2020, Volume 31, Issue 4
South Africa’s government sought to heed expert advice with its covid lockdown, yet shortcomings in state capacity fatally undermined both the virus response and efforts to address its devastating economic toll.
July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3
The encrypted messaging service WhatsApp has become an increasingly important tool for “fake news” in Nigeria, while weakening government control of information and broadening opportunities for political participation.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
Sub-Saharan African governments are clamping down on media freedom. More surprising is how many of their citizens appear to support this attack on the press.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
Ordinary citizens in East Asia, Latin America, and Africa are increasingly disappointed with democracy and its ability to deliver.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
Despite the lack of electoral turnover in ANC-ruled South Africa, the country’s successful resistance to efforts at “state capture” under former president Jacob Zuma testifies to the vitality of its democracy.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Three decades after sub-Saharan Africa joined the “third wave,” democracy’s ability to endure has been established in many countries, but its quality remains a grave concern.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Data from the latest wave of the Afrobarometer survey show that Africans’ demand for liberal democracy remains high. The problem lies in lagging supply.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
In Senegal, voters, civil society, and the media remain active and engaged, but as the reelection of Macky Sall showed, the president’s ability to limit competition and centralize power remains formidable.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Election officials made strides toward secure voter identification, and a two-party system appears to be emerging, but the 2019 elections revealed continuing problems with vote-buying and violence.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Stymied in his effort to secure a third term, President Joseph Kabila manipulated the electoral process in order to secure a compliant successor.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Popular dissatisfaction and tensions within the long-ruling EPRDF have led to the rise of a young reformist leader who has begun a course of bold reversals in favor of greater freedom and openness.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
Zimbabwe’s first elections since the November 2017 coup that ousted nonagenarian dictator Robert Mugabe were marred by the abuse of state resources, electoral irregularities, and a tragic bout of postelection violence that saw soldiers use deadly force against civilians.
July 2018, Volume 29, Issue 3
The retirement of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and George Weah’s election as her successor open a new chapter for a country that has made great strides since its brutal civil war, but where progress remains tenuous.
April 2018, Volume 29, Issue 2
Sophisticated technology could not keep Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election from leading to renewed ethnic tensions and a painful standoff from which the country appears only now to be emerging. What went wrong?
January 2018, Volume 29, Issue 1
Central African autocrats are using their stolen money to outmaneuver their opponents and deflect international criticism.
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
Is pressing a troubled, intensely fragile “postconflict” country to hold elections a good idea? Somalia did so in late 2016 and early 2017, and the process was not pretty. But was it better than the alternative?
July 2017, Volume 28, Issue 3
Since Tanzania’s 2015 elections, rising repression and opposition protest have displaced an older dynamic of comparatively restrained and unchallenged dominance by the ruling party.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
Despite pre-election fears, the victory of the opposition NPP over the ruling NDC in Ghana’s December 2016 elections became the prologue to a peaceful transfer of power. This outcome suggests that the advantage of incumbency in African elections may be on the wane.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
This small West African country voted a longtime dictator out of the presidency. This victory for democracy was seemingly snatched away by his refusal to leave power—yet a breathtaking reversal lay in store.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
The use of force and intimidation against women trying to take part in politics is a growing problem in many places. Such violence assumes a number of different forms, but all aim to keep women as women out of public life.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
Following the end of the Cold War, an international norm against coups began gaining strength, but it seems to have lost momentum in recent years. What has happened?
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
The interplay between elections, popular protests, and international pressures has a profound effect on the behavior of African autocrats and their ability to stay in power even after their time is up.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
As more and more African presidents attempt to remove or circumvent constitutional term limits, African populations increasingly are mobilizing en masse, at great risk, to defend their constitutions.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
There is strong empirical evidence to support the correlation between effective term limits and the quality of democracy.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
The ruling EPRDF and its allies won every single seat in parliament in Ethiopia’s May 2015 elections, signaling a hardening of the regime’s authoritarian rule.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
Ethiopia’s ruling party has long been tightening its grip, using antiterrorism laws and harsh restrictions on media and civil society to silence voices critical of the regime.
July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3
Rwanda under Paul Kagame has been hailed for its visionary leadership, economic progress, and reforms in education, health, and agriculture. Yet the regime’s autocratic rule, human-rights abuses, persecution of the Hutu majority, and growing inequality point to an ominous future.
July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3
In a surprising turn of events, opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari was able to outpoll incumbent Goodluck Jonathan—and the latter peacefully acknowledged his defeat.
April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2
Although elections take place on schedule in Mozambique, they are of dubious quality, and the most recent one was held amid an uneasy peace following renewed outbursts of civil strife. Major new gas and mineral finds promise a shot at greater prosperity, but also hold the threat of a “resource curse.”
April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2
A review of Power Politics in Zimbabwe by Michael Bratton.
January 2015, Volume 26, Issue 1
Since the mid-2000s, democratization in Africa has faltered, in large part due to its elites’ waning commitment to democracy.
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
Democracy’s fortunes rose in Africa in the 1990s, but more recently have been in retreat. The forces of democratic resurgence remain in play, however, as a look at the key case of Nigeria suggests.
April 2014, Volume 25, Issue 2
Nelson Mandela, who died in late 2013, fought for freedom for all the people of South Africa and masterfully guided his country’s transition to a nonracial democracy. His record on foreign policy is more ambiguous, but also instructive.
April 2014, Volume 25, Issue 2
After four years of sharing power with the opposition, Zimbabwe’s longtime president Robert Mugabe and his party claimed a huge victory in the 2013 elections. What accounts for the opposition’s stunning electoral decline?
April 2014, Volume 25, Issue 2
By militarizing key state institutions and using violence against the opposition, Zimbabwe’s military elites have hindered the country’s transition to democracy. In return, they have been richly rewarded. Can the military’s tentacles be untangled from Zimbabwean politics?
October 2013, Volume 24, Issue 4
Do even unfree and unfair elections in sub-Saharan Africa, if repeated often enough, really contribute to democratization? A fresh look at the evidence casts doubt on the theory of “democratization by elections.”
October 2013, Volume 24, Issue 4
Staffan Lindberg replies to Matthijs Bogaards’s critique, finding the latter’s methodology problematic and arguing that the evidence for association between repeated elections and democratization remains strong.
July 2013, Volume 24, Issue 3
In March 2013, Kenyans took to the polls in what turned out to be another disputed election. Why did the peace hold this time, unlike in 2007, and what are the implications for democracy in Kenya?
July 2013, Volume 24, Issue 3
In an effort to avoid repeating the 2007 electoral debacle, Kenya’s election commission turned to technology, but its high-tech voter-registration and vote-count processes fell short. Its experience has important lessons both for emerging democracies and for international donors.
July 2012, Volume 23, Issue 3
Regular elections have become a fixture of political life throughout sub-Saharan Africa, but there are now “two Africas” in this regard: one where elections bring the blessings of greater political openness and competition, and another where elections are, in effect, one more tool that authoritarians use to retain power.
July 2012, Volume 23, Issue 3
Ghana has won praise for its steady progress toward democratic consolidation, in late 2010 it joined the ranks of the world’s oil producers. Will the democratic institutions be able to resist the “resource curse”?
July 2012, Volume 23, Issue 3
On 9 December 2011, incumbent president Joseph Kabila was declared the official winner of the DRC’s deeply flawed presidential election, resulting in a legal president without legitimacy and an uncertain political future.
July 2012, Volume 23, Issue 3
Although Senegal has often been regarded as a democracy, its regime should more properly have been classified as competitive authoritarian. Will the 2012 election of a new president prove to be a turning point?
October 2011, Volume 22, Issue 4
Nigeria’s 2011 presidential election offered its citizens the most competitive and transparent contest in decades, but also the bloodiest.
July 2011, Volume 22, Issue 3
Despite signs of a cautious willingness to allow more political competition, the regime of newly reelected president Yoweri Museveni fell back on familiar habits of brutal repression when public unrest followed a sudden spike in the cost of living.
July 2011, Volume 22, Issue 3
Despite improvements in South Africa’s socioeconomic landscape and the expansion of the black middle class since the end of apartheid, the country’s levels of poverty and inequality remain high and heavily correlated with race.
July 2011, Volume 22, Issue 3
After decades of civil war, Sudan is set to divide into two nations on 9 July 2011. Yet a number of explosive issues—including the drawing of borders and sharing of oil revenue—have still not been resolved, and the prospects for peace appear to be dimming.
April 2011, Volume 22, Issue 2
Wracked by postelection violence in 2007 and 2008, Kenya embarked upon a course of constitutional change that culminated in an August 2010 referendum. How was the new basic law framed and passed, and what will it mean for democracy in this key East African country?
April 2011, Volume 22, Issue 2
Once dismissed as an “overcrowded barracoon,” this Indian Ocean island nation has more recently been hailed as one of Africa’s “emerging success stories,” but the truth is that some troublesome shadings haunt this rosy picture.
January 2011, Volume 22, Issue 1
African politics is often characterized as a realm of “informality,” but formal rules and institutions actually loom large, especially with regard to overweening executive power and the reforms that may help to rein it in.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
A group of countries in sub-Saharan Africa are showing they can sustain economic growth, reduce poverty, and achieve better governance at the same time.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
Efforts to do comparative research on political attitudes have been complicated by varying understandings of “democracy.” The Afrobarometer is exploring new techniques to overcome this difficulty.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
Since the return of multipartism in sub-Saharan Africa, open-seat elections have been the most likely to yield opposition victories, suggesting that term limits may significantly contribute to democratic consolidation.
July 2010, Volume 21, Issue 3
Despite its historic 2006 elections, the Democratic Republic of Congo still lacks competent governance, leaving its democratic promise unfulfilled.
April 2010, Volume 21, Issue 2
Once touted as a regional success story, Mozambique has been backsliding toward one-party-dominant rule, and has now slipped off the Freedom House list of electoral democracies. How and why did this happen?
October 2009, Volume 20, Issue 4
The ANC saw its first-ever decline in vote share in South Africa's 2009 parliamentary elections. Will the ANC heed this warning to mend internal divisions and reconnect with voters?
October 2009, Volume 20, Issue 4
The country's long-ruling party has never faced a serious electoral challenge—due not only to opposition weakness but also to a deliberate strategy of suppression.
October 2009, Volume 20, Issue 4
Parliamentary elections in 2008 secured the MPLA's hegemony and decimated the opposition, while paradoxically increasing the government's legitimacy.
July 2009, Volume 20, Issue 3
Due to weak opposition parties and presidential dominance, many African countries have not reaped the full benefits of regularly held elections.
April 2009, Volume 20, Issue 2
Ghana held its fourth successful elections in late 2008 and subsequently witnessed the peaceful handover of power from ruling party to opposition. The country’s leaders must now reform its institutions of governance.
October 2008, Volume 19, Issue 4
Once hailed as liberators, Zimbabwe’s ruling party now clings to power through violent repression. How did the country’s founding father become its dictator, and what patterns in his party’s past foretold such an outcome?
October 2008, Volume 19, Issue 4
Fifteen years after the wave of democratization crested in Africa, the region still grapples with an economic malaise that is disappointing popular expectations and undermining the legitimacy of electoral regimes.
October 2008, Volume 19, Issue 4
After the ethnic violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, Kenya must reform its institutions to better represent its diverse polity.
July 2008, Volume 19, Issue 3
Emerging from one of the world’s most notorious failed states, Somaliland has become an oasis of relative democratic stability in the troubled Horn of Africa. What does its story teach us about democratic state-building?
July 2008, Volume 19, Issue 3
For years Kenya was regarded as one of Africa’s sturdiest democracies. The fraudulent 2007 presidential election, however, exposed the fragility of Kenya’s democratic framework.
April 2008, Volume 19, Issue 2
In Africa today, investment flows in and civil societies grow stronger, yet many of the continent's leaders continue to behave autocratically, defending their privileges against the spread of law-based rule.
April 2008, Volume 19, Issue 2
Despite sweeping political and constitutional changes in Africa, a notable feature of the ancien régime survives—the imperial presidency. African presidents may be term-limited, but they have not been tamed.
April 2008, Volume 19, Issue 2
The legislature is emerging as a "player" in some African countries, though not in others. What is the relationship between legislative development and democratic consolidation in Africa?
April 2008, Volume 19, Issue 2
Africa is a battleground between formal democratic institutions and rule by the will of the "big man." Civil society groups are waging this struggle, and technology is equipping them with surprising new tools.
January 2008, Volume 19, Issue 1
Five years after the close of a horrifying civil war, Sierra Leone held the freest elections in its history. Voters turned out the party that had overseen the war's end, blaming it for having mishandled governance since then.
January 2008, Volume 19, Issue 1
Senegal's 2000 presidential election marked the end of forty years of one-party rule. But the reign of President Wade has been a severe disappointment, dashing hopes for democratic consolidation. *This is a corrected text of the print and original online version of this essay, portions of which drew heavily on Tarik Dahou and Vincent Foucher's…
October 2007, Volume 18, Issue 4
The failure of the elections has been partly mitigated by the hope of judicial review of electoral malfeasance, the stabilizing ingenuity of ethno-regional power-sharing, and renewed national discussions of electoral reforms.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
For more than two decades, President Yoweri Museveni has been building an authoritarian regime that answers closely to his personal will.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Survey data indicate that Africans support democracy and its formal institutions, but also point to the importance of the informal realm, particularly when formal institutions fail to meet popular expectations.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Sub-Saharan Africa has been traditionally depicted as a place where formal institutional rules are largely irrelevant-yet in the past fifteen years these rules have come to matter, and this trend is unlikely to reverse.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
Since the early 1990s, many African countries have undergone political liberalization, and so far this trend has been accompanied by a significant drop in the incidence of military coups.
April 2007, Volume 18, Issue 2
The holding of competitive elections in this vast, strife-torn country must count as a significant achievement, even though voters signaled their disaffection with the entire array of political elites that had been ruling them.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
On the surface, intelligence-sector reform since the fall of apartheid has been a model of success, but the growing politicization of security-sector forces by the ruling ANC may pose a threat to the consolidation of South Africa's young democracy.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
By graciously accepting the defeat of a constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to seek a third term, President Olusegun Obasanjo has solidified his contribution to Nigerian democracy, but much remains to be done.
July 2006, Volume 17, Issue 3
The ruling African National Congress has been an overwhelming presence in the politics of post-apartheid South Africa. The country's dominant-party system, despite its dangers, may be the strongest buttress for democracy.
April 2006, Volume 17, Issue 2
Despite hopes that 2005 would see an end to hostilities between rebels and government forces, neither disarmament nor elections took place. How did this once-prosperous country end up on the verge of anarchy and disaster?
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
After a long and bloody civil conflict, Burundi has established a new democratic regime. Does its tenuous but hopeful example hold lessons that might help its troubled neighbors?
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Burundi's leaders are learning to embrace a culture of discussion and consensus that offers a way out of the abyss of civil war.
January 2006, Volume 17, Issue 1
Data from Africa show that repeated elections, regardless of their relative freeness or fairness,appear to have a positive impact on the growth of civil liberties and democratic values.
October 2005, Volume 16, Issue 4
In May, Ethiopia held its first genuinely competitive elections. The strong showing of opposition parties gives hope for a more democratic future.
July 2005, Volume 16, Issue 3
Natural-resource wealth has been at the root of Angola's corruption and authoritarianism. By giving leverage to those pushing for reform, however, it has also become a key factor in teh struggle for accountability.
January 2005, Volume 16, Issue 1
Modest progress in the muslim-majority countries is complemented by mass mobilization for democracy and freedom in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia ranks as Not Free for the first time since the fall of communism.
October 2004, Volume 15, Issue 4
Surveys show that Africans’ commitment to democracy fades over time, but also that their support can be refreshed by alternations in power via elections.
