October 2024, Volume 35, Issue 4
The far right celebrated big wins in the 2024 European Union elections, but it has struggled to translate that success into political power. Victory at the ballot box has not made its ideological and organizational divisions any easier to solve.
October 2024, Volume 35, Issue 4
After thirty years of ANC dominance, the 2024 elections have ushered in multiparty politics in South Africa. Will the party’s centrist shift be enough to stop its descent, or is it destined to fracture further?
July 2024, Volume 35, Issue 3
While he did not achieve the sweeping victory many predicted, Narendra Modi led his ruling coalition to a third consecutive victory. In so doing, he is laying the foundation for a new political order in which India is simultaneously more democratic and more illiberal.
July 2024, Volume 35, Issue 3
Claudia Sheinbaum won Mexico’s presidency in a landslide, but celebration of her election as the country’s first female president was blunted by a deeper concern: Mexico’s deteriorating democracy. In truth, the country’s democratic institutions are highly resilient, and there is reason to be optimistic about what lies ahead.
April 2024, Volume 35, Issue 2
Indonesians have just elected a former general accused of human-rights abuses, with little respect for democratic institutions. The country’s democracy has not failed, but it may soon be fighting for its life.
October 2023, Volume 34, Issue 4
Almost no one expected a little-known candidate to defeat the ruling antidemocratic regime at the ballot box. But the Guatemalan opposition, backed by the international community, exploited the criminal oligarchy’s fissures to halt the country’s authoritarian slide.
July 2023, Volume 34, Issue 3
Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party has wound down local elections and reasserted control in the countryside. But putting these burdens on its own shoulders brings new and significant risks for Beijing.
April 2023, Volume 34, Issue 2
Iraq today is more of a democracy than most people think, but still less of a democracy than it could be. While its future is uncertain, one thing is not: It will be determined by Iraqis.
January 2023, Volume 34, Issue 1
Brazil’s charismatic former president is back, but there will be no honeymoon for the left. He won by a sliver, and his opponents on the right were empowered by the same election.
October 2022, Volume 33, Issue 4
Opposition movements often boycott rigged polls rather than risk legitimizing an autocrat. It is usually a mistake. Here is the playbook for how one opposition seized the advantage.
July 2022, Volume 33, Issue 3
The case of Hungary shows how autocrats can rig elections legally, using legislative majorities to change the law and neutralize the opposition at every turn, no matter what strategy they adopt.
July 2022, Volume 33, Issue 3
A half-century after his father declared martial law and made himself a dictator, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been elected president of the Philippines by a stunning majority. There is little stopping him from dismantling what remains of the country’s democracy.
April 2022, Volume 33, Issue 2
The country’s opposition beat an authoritarian incumbent by unifying, organizing its supporters, and contesting every election no matter the odds. Can the strategy be applied elsewhere?
January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1
Halting a decade of democratic backsliding, Haikainde Hichilema defeated an increasingly iron-fisted incumbent president. How did he do it and can others learn from his example?
October 2021, Volume 32, Issue 4
A weakened mandate from voters and perennial state dysfunction are putting Mexico’s populist president in a bind. Will he further damage democracy to fulfill his promises for change?
October 2021, Volume 32, Issue 4
Turkey’s ruling party has developed a new tool: When its local candidates lose, it dismisses them and appoints its own choice under a guise that maintains the veneer of democracy. It is an autocratic innovation that may soon spread.
July 2021, Volume 32, Issue 3
Reformist leaders offered order, stability, and progress. But the country’s deep-seated political pathologies have proven far more durable than their promises.
July 2021, Volume 32, Issue 3
Chilean democracy has opted to throw off a constitution written by a dictator, and has chosen an assembly to craft a new one. Can Chile begin anew?
July 2021, Volume 32, Issue 3
Instead of ending the instability that has seen the country have four presidents in three years, Peru’s presidential election has left the country on a razor-thin edge.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
The military could not bear Aung San Suu Kyi’s enduring popularity and her party’s continued success at the polls. But the generals may have miscalculated how much the people detest them.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
With brutal resolve, the ruling party sought not merely to win an election, but to annihilate the opposition. Now, with President John Magufuli gone, that strategic rationale will likely only grow stronger.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
While many blamed President John Magufuli for throwing the country off its democratizing track, the truth is that the party that has ruled Tanzania for six decades has always been authoritarian.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
Longtime president Yoweri Museveni, his ruling party, and his increasingly militarized regime opened 2021 with a grossly unfair election. But time may be on the side of Uganda’s young voters and their hunger for change.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
The covid-19 pandemic nearly upended the U.S. election, but after a rocky primary season changes were made to save it. Alarmingly, however, a large portion of voters have rejected the result. The challenge of overcoming lies about a “rigged” election is great.
January 2021, Volume 32, Issue 1
The return to power, via elections, of the Rajapaksa family signals the consolidation of a Sinhalese Buddhist ethnocracy. But there are reasons to hope it will not take a turn toward full despotism.
October 2020, Volume 31, Issue 4
Well-organized demonstrations are rocking the 26-year-old dictatorship of President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. Inside the movement and why it rose when it did.
October 2020, Volume 31, Issue 4
In a country where opposition forces were long marginalized and dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka faced little serious threat to his rule, Belarus’s 2020 antirevolutionary protest movement has changed the game.
July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3
No country in the world is more intensely targeted by Beijing’s influence operations than Taiwan. The lead-up to the January 2020 elections saw China putting a full-court press on the island, but Taiwanese democracy broke it.
July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3
Evo Morales lost the presidency in November 2019 due not to a coup, but to a citizen revolt. After his controversial bid for a fourth consecutive term, the opposition mobilized against him and his regime disintegrated.
July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3
The encrypted messaging service WhatsApp has become an increasingly important tool for “fake news” in Nigeria, while weakening government control of information and broadening opportunities for political participation.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
Is there a recipe for defeating a populist? A novel campaign strategy based on inclusion and public responsiveness may show how to beat the odds in a competitive authoritarian system.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
The 2019 election ended years of turmoil over the United Kingdom’s relationship with the EU, but challenges to national unity and parliamentary sovereignty are only beginning to come to a head.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
Out of power and with promises to jumpstart a lagging economy, the fractured Peronists reunified and reclaimed the presidency. Now they must deliver what voters want.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
Algeria’s massive wave of protesters wanted to put an end to sham elections. While the leaderless movement succeeded for a time, its failure showcased the lengths to which a country’s ruling elite will go to maintain its hold on power.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
Despite the lack of electoral turnover in ANC-ruled South Africa, the country’s successful resistance to efforts at “state capture” under former president Jacob Zuma testifies to the vitality of its democracy.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
The results of the May 2019 elections to the European Parliament—and particularly the growing influence of the populist radical right—reflect a deep transformation of European politics that can largely be traced to the “refugee crisis” of 2015–16.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
The ruling BJP and the prime minister who leads it are now even stronger in the wake of their sweeping 2019 election victory. Voting puts the strength of Indian democracy on display, but the turn away from constitutional liberalism and toward Hindu majoritarianism is alarming.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
To a degree that is still not widely appreciated, the BJP has replaced Congress as India’s party of welfarism. The carefully crafted political persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the “leader of the poor” has been crucial to this shift.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
For the second straight time, voters rejected a presidential candidate with ties to undemocratic Islamist forces, but victorious incumbent Joko Widodo felt compelled to tone down his support for liberalism.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
The military junta that seized power in 2014 finally organized an election in 2019, but with the goal of preventing rather than facilitating a return to civilian rule.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
The first half of President Rodrigo Duterte’s single six-year term saw steady erosion of legal barriers against abuses of power, typified by a bloody and extralegal “drug war.” Yet in midterm Senate elections, Filipino voters gave him a decisive victory.
October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4
A trio of national ballotings in 2019 tell a tale of waxing authoritarianism in Southeast Asia, but things could have turned out worse.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
A comic actor’s triumph in Ukraine’s free and competitive 2019 presidential race reflects distrust of establishment elites and a deep desire for change.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Election officials made strides toward secure voter identification, and a two-party system appears to be emerging, but the 2019 elections revealed continuing problems with vote-buying and violence.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Stymied in his effort to secure a third term, President Joseph Kabila manipulated the electoral process in order to secure a compliant successor.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
A review of Responsible Parties: Saving Democracy from Itself by Frances McCall Rosenbluth and Ian Shapiro.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
The triumph of far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil’s October 2018 presidential election was made possible by a series of economic, social, and political crises that have shaken Brazilian democracy.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
In 2018, Italian voters produced Europe’s first populist majority. Lega and the Five Star Movement, each populist in its own way, collectively won just over half the vote. Now they are locked in a struggle with the EU.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
With its recent electoral turnover of power, Pakistan seemingly passed a milestone of democratic consolidation. But beneath the surface, power remains where it long has been—with the military.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
Zimbabwe’s first elections since the November 2017 coup that ousted nonagenarian dictator Robert Mugabe were marred by the abuse of state resources, electoral irregularities, and a tragic bout of postelection violence that saw soldiers use deadly force against civilians.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
A crackdown on the opposition, followed by sham parliamentary elections in July 2018, has deepened and extended the decades-long personalist dictatorship of Hun Sen.
January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1
A review of How to Rig an Election by Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas.
October 2018, Volume 29, Issue 4
AMLO’s sweeping victory in Mexico’s 2018 elections could point to a long-term dealignment of the country’s party system, but it is more likely that a less radical process of partisan recomposition will take place.
October 2018, Volume 29, Issue 4
Colombian voters turned against the architects of the peace accord ending the country’s decades-old internal war, while giving the presidency to a lieutenant of ex-president Uribe, the agreement’s leading opponent.
October 2018, Volume 29, Issue 4
In Malaysia’s May 2018 general election, a grand bargain between ex–prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and reform leader Anwar Ibrahim produced a political earthquake that ended 61 years of rule by the United Malays National Organization (UMNO).
July 2018, Volume 29, Issue 3
The retirement of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and George Weah’s election as her successor open a new chapter for a country that has made great strides since its brutal civil war, but where progress remains tenuous.
April 2018, Volume 29, Issue 2
Sophisticated technology could not keep Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election from leading to renewed ethnic tensions and a painful standoff from which the country appears only now to be emerging. What went wrong?
January 2018, Volume 29, Issue 1
In July 2017, Timor-Leste held its third parliamentary elections since independence. The party-centered campaign featured both enduring legacies of the revolutionary struggle and a distinct form of political patronage.
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
Despite all its flaws, Iran’s May 2017 presidential balloting amounted to another small but genuine advance for the cause of democracy.
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
Wrongly viewed by many media sources as a victory for “reform” and “openness,” the recent presidential election in Iran actually reflected the demoralization and disengagement of the country’s prodemocratic opposition.
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
After a presidential corruption scandal sparked peaceful mass protests leading to the impeachment and removal of the incumbent, South Koreans went to the polls to choose her successor. Was this drama a window on the troubles of South Korean democracy, or a testament to its strength and resilience?
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
Is pressing a troubled, intensely fragile “postconflict” country to hold elections a good idea? Somalia did so in late 2016 and early 2017, and the process was not pretty. But was it better than the alternative?
July 2017, Volume 28, Issue 3
Turkmenistan’s authoritarian president Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov attempted to use sham democratic elections in February 2017 to bolster his legitimacy both at home and abroad.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
Three factors help to explain the historically wide split between the electoral and popular vote counts: economic and political fundamentals, polarization among voters over identity issues, and the sharply divergent ways in which the candidates chose to address these issues.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
Since the 1970s, the U.S. presidential-nomination system has become more democratic, making primary elections crucial, reducing the influence of political parties, and making it easier for outsiders to win.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
In 2016, concerns about the administration of elections in the United States generated highly charged partisan debates. Are the worries justified?
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
Despite pre-election fears, the victory of the opposition NPP over the ruling NDC in Ghana’s December 2016 elections became the prologue to a peaceful transfer of power. This outcome suggests that the advantage of incumbency in African elections may be on the wane.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
This small West African country voted a longtime dictator out of the presidency. This victory for democracy was seemingly snatched away by his refusal to leave power—yet a breathtaking reversal lay in store.
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
With the ruling FSLN’s one-sided triumph in the November 2016 elections, Nicaraguan democracy underwent further erosion. The emerging authoritarian party-state, far from being a leftist revolutionary government, is becoming a neopatrimonial dictatorship in an older Latin American style.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
Ennahda has long felt an especially strong kinship with Turkey’s AKP, which has seen as representing a combination of piety, prosperity, and democratic credibility. How might their relationship be affected by the AKP's more recent authoritarian turn?
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
Once Europe’s most painful “problem” area, the Balkans have managed to make strides toward stability, democracy, and integration into the West over the last fifteen or so years. But Moscow is becoming increasingly active in the region, and the durability of these gains should not be taken for granted.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
This sparsely populated, landlocked country sandwiched between much larger authoritarian neighbors has nonetheless managed to maintain a fairly robust democracy. The secret lies in its energetic civil society.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
The September 2016 Legislative Council election marked the rise of a new political force that emphasizes the specific interests and identity of Hong Kong. It has especially been championed by many of the young people who swelled 2014’s Umbrella Movement protests.
October 2016, Volume 27, Issue 4
The surprise victory of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines’ May 2016 presidential election represents a major shift in the liberal-democratic regime established thirty years ago after the “people power” revolution.
October 2016, Volume 27, Issue 4
Duterte promised voters that he would swiftly reduce crime and poverty and enact constitutional change. But will he violate democratic norms and rule of law in the process?
October 2016, Volume 27, Issue 4
Peru’s economic boom is over and newly elected president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski faces a Congress dominated by opposition parties, putting him in a more precarious position than his predecessors.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
The interplay between elections, popular protests, and international pressures has a profound effect on the behavior of African autocrats and their ability to stay in power even after their time is up.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
As more and more African presidents attempt to remove or circumvent constitutional term limits, African populations increasingly are mobilizing en masse, at great risk, to defend their constitutions.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
There is strong empirical evidence to support the correlation between effective term limits and the quality of democracy.
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
Venezuela’s competitive authoritarian regime now confronts a highly mobilized opposition with a large majority in the legislature. What are the prospects for successful democratic change amidst a deteriorating security situation and an economy in freefall?
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
With a skillfully conveyed message of managerial competence and an electorate disenchanted by a floundering economy and the outgoing incumbent’s confrontational style, Mauricio Macri demonstrated that a non-Peronist can win Argentina’s presidency.
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy swept Burma’s November 2015 elections. Will the new NLD-led government be able to live up to high expectations that it will deliver better governance, national reconciliation, and some form of federalism?
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
Even though Burma’s military seems to have accepted the NLD’s stunning election victory, it can still use an array of constitutional provisions to hamstring the incoming NLD government.
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
What does public opinion tell us about Burma’s longer-term prospects for democracy? The Asian Barometer Survey reveals contradictory attitudes regarding democracy and democratic values among the citizens of Burma.
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
In power since 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seemed as if it might be losing its hold when Turkish voters went to the polls in June 2015. Yet that “hung election” gave way to another contest in November, and the AKP came roaring back.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
The ruling EPRDF and its allies won every single seat in parliament in Ethiopia’s May 2015 elections, signaling a hardening of the regime’s authoritarian rule.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
Ethiopia’s ruling party has long been tightening its grip, using antiterrorism laws and harsh restrictions on media and civil society to silence voices critical of the regime.
January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1
The surprising electoral defeat of President Mahinda Rajapaksa in January 2015 was reinforced by his failed comeback in August parliamentary elections.
October 2015, Volume 26, Issue 4
Islamic political parties were not especially popular with voters in Muslim-majority countries before the Arab Spring. Has that changed?
July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3
Rwanda under Paul Kagame has been hailed for its visionary leadership, economic progress, and reforms in education, health, and agriculture. Yet the regime’s autocratic rule, human-rights abuses, persecution of the Hutu majority, and growing inequality point to an ominous future.
July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3
In a surprising turn of events, opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari was able to outpoll incumbent Goodluck Jonathan—and the latter peacefully acknowledged his defeat.
April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2
China has gone back on its well-documented vow (and solemn treaty obligation) to allow Hong Kong genuine universal suffrage. Abrogated commitments and fake democracy are not the path to a thriving Hong Kong that feels at home within the People’s Republic of China.
April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2
Although elections take place on schedule in Mozambique, they are of dubious quality, and the most recent one was held amid an uneasy peace following renewed outbursts of civil strife. Major new gas and mineral finds promise a shot at greater prosperity, but also hold the threat of a “resource curse.”
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
India’s sixteenth general election ushered in a new era in the country’s politics, putting Narendra Modi and the BJP firmly in charge. What accounts for the sharp swing away from the long-dominant Congress party?
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
Will India under the BJP see a period of renewed communal violence, or will Hindu-nationalist politicians be reined in by constitutional constraints and their desire to stay in power?
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
Modi promised “good days” to aspiring young Indians, and they voted for him in droves. But he is off to a slow start in carrying out the economic reforms necessary to ensure that better days lie ahead.
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
Will the Modi government focus on the economy, or will it seek to implement a transformational Hindu-nationalist agenda?
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
The European Parliament elections of May 2014 were not an “earthquake,” but they did signal that Euroskeptic parties are drawing closer to the European political mainstream.
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
Disagreements over how much power should reside in Brussels must be allowed to become a normal aspect of debates about European affairs.
October 2014, Volume 25, Issue 4
Indonesia’s 2014 legislative elections went smoothly. Yet the “money politics” that featured so heavily in these contests suggests a grave need to reform the country’s electoral system.
