Subject: Elections

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October 2024, Volume 35, Issue 4

The 2024 EU Elections: The Far Right at the Polls

The far right celebrated big wins in the 2024 European Union elections, but it has struggled to translate that success into political power. Victory at the ballot box has not made its ideological and organizational divisions any easier to solve.

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October 2024, Volume 35, Issue 4

The Long Decline of South Africa’s ANC

After thirty years of ANC dominance, the 2024 elections have ushered in multiparty politics in South Africa. Will the party’s centrist shift be enough to stop its descent, or is it destined to fracture further?

July 2024, Volume 35, Issue 3

The Rise of India’s Second Republic

While he did not achieve the sweeping victory many predicted, Narendra Modi led his ruling coalition to a third consecutive victory. In so doing, he is laying the foundation for a new political order in which India is simultaneously more democratic and more illiberal.

July 2024, Volume 35, Issue 3

Why Mexico Is Not on the Brink

Claudia Sheinbaum won Mexico’s presidency in a landslide, but celebration of her election as the country’s first female president was blunted by a deeper concern: Mexico’s deteriorating democracy. In truth, the country’s democratic institutions are highly resilient, and there is reason to be optimistic about what lies ahead.

April 2024, Volume 35, Issue 2

Indonesia’s High-Stakes Handover

Indonesians have just elected a former general accused of human-rights abuses, with little respect for democratic institutions. The country’s democracy has not failed, but it may soon be fighting for its life.

October 2023, Volume 34, Issue 4

How Guatemala Defied the Odds

Almost no one expected a little-known candidate to defeat the ruling antidemocratic regime at the ballot box. But the Guatemalan opposition, backed by the international community, exploited the criminal oligarchy’s fissures to halt the country’s authoritarian slide.

July 2023, Volume 34, Issue 3

The End of Village Democracy in China

Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party has wound down local elections and reasserted control in the countryside. But putting these burdens on its own shoulders brings new and significant risks for Beijing.

April 2023, Volume 34, Issue 2

Iraq’s Struggle for Democracy

Iraq today is more of a democracy than most people think, but still less of a democracy than it could be. While its future is uncertain, one thing is not: It will be determined by Iraqis.

January 2023, Volume 34, Issue 1

Lula’s Second Act

Brazil’s charismatic former president is back, but there will be no honeymoon for the left. He won by a sliver, and his opponents on the right were empowered by the same election.

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October 2022, Volume 33, Issue 4

How to Compete in Unfair Elections

Opposition movements often boycott rigged polls rather than risk legitimizing an autocrat. It is usually a mistake. Here is the playbook for how one opposition seized the advantage.

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July 2022, Volume 33, Issue 3

How Viktor Orbán Wins

The case of Hungary shows how autocrats can rig elections legally, using legislative majorities to change the law and neutralize the opposition at every turn, no matter what strategy they adopt.

July 2022, Volume 33, Issue 3

The Return of the Marcos Dynasty

A half-century after his father declared martial law and made himself a dictator, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been elected president of the Philippines by a stunning majority. There is little stopping him from dismantling what remains of the country’s democracy.

January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1

How Zambia’s Opposition Won

Halting a decade of democratic backsliding, Haikainde Hichilema defeated an increasingly iron-fisted incumbent president. How did he do it and can others learn from his example?

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October 2021, Volume 32, Issue 4

How Authoritarians Win When They Lose

Turkey’s ruling party has developed a new tool: When its local candidates lose, it dismisses them and appoints its own choice under a guise that maintains the veneer of democracy. It is an autocratic innovation that may soon spread.

April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2

Burma: The Generals Strike Back

The military could not bear Aung San Suu Kyi’s enduring popularity and her party’s continued success at the polls. But the generals may have miscalculated how much the people detest them.

April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2

Tanzania: The Authoritarian Landslide

With brutal resolve, the ruling party sought not merely to win an election, but to annihilate the opposition. Now, with President John Magufuli gone, that strategic rationale will likely only grow stronger.

April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2

Uganda’s Fraudulent Election

Longtime president Yoweri Museveni, his ruling party, and his increasingly militarized regime opened 2021 with a grossly unfair election. But time may be on the side of Uganda’s young voters and their hunger for change.

January 2021, Volume 32, Issue 1

Sri Lanka: The Return to Ethnocracy

The return to power, via elections, of the Rajapaksa family signals the consolidation of a Sinhalese Buddhist ethnocracy. But there are reasons to hope it will not take a turn toward full despotism.

July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3

How Taiwan Stands Up to China

No country in the world is more intensely targeted by Beijing’s influence operations than Taiwan. The lead-up to the January 2020 elections saw China putting a full-court press on the island, but Taiwanese democracy broke it.

July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3

Bolivia’s Citizen Revolt

Evo Morales lost the presidency in November 2019 due not to a coup, but to a citizen revolt. After his controversial bid for a fourth consecutive term, the opposition mobilized against him and his regime disintegrated.

April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2

The Hard Truths of Brexit

The 2019 election ended years of turmoil over the United Kingdom’s relationship with the EU, but challenges to national unity and parliamentary sovereignty are only beginning to come to a head.

April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2

Algeria: When Elections Hurt Democracy

Algeria’s massive wave of protesters wanted to put an end to sham elections. While the leaderless movement succeeded for a time, its failure showcased the lengths to which a country’s ruling elite will go to maintain its hold on power.

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October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4

Resisting State Capture in South Africa

Despite the lack of electoral turnover in ANC-ruled South Africa, the country’s successful resistance to efforts at “state capture” under former president Jacob Zuma testifies to the vitality of its democracy.

October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4

The 2019 EU Elections: Moving the Center

The results of the May 2019 elections to the European Parliament—and particularly the growing influence of the populist radical right—reflect a deep transformation of European politics that can largely be traced to the “refugee crisis” of 2015–16.

October 2019, Volume 30, Issue 4

Modi Consolidates Power: Leveraging Welfare Politics

To a degree that is still not widely appreciated, the BJP has replaced Congress as India’s party of welfarism. The carefully crafted political persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the “leader of the poor” has been crucial to this shift.

January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1

How the Populists Won in Italy

In 2018, Italian voters produced Europe’s first populist majority. Lega and the Five Star Movement, each populist in its own way, collectively won just over half the vote. Now they are locked in a struggle with the EU.

January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1

Pakistan: Voting Under Military Tutelage

With its recent electoral turnover of power, Pakistan seemingly passed a milestone of democratic consolidation. But beneath the surface, power remains where it long has been—with the military.

January 2019, Volume 30, Issue 1

Zimbabwe: An Opportunity Lost

Zimbabwe’s first elections since the November 2017 coup that ousted nonagenarian dictator Robert Mugabe were marred by the abuse of state resources, electoral irregularities, and a tragic bout of postelection violence that saw soldiers use deadly force against civilians.

October 2018, Volume 29, Issue 4

The Downfall of Malaysia’s Ruling Party

In Malaysia’s May 2018 general election, a grand bargain between ex–prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and reform leader Anwar Ibrahim produced a political earthquake that ended 61 years of rule by the United Malays National Organization (UMNO).

July 2018, Volume 29, Issue 3

Has Liberia Turned a Corner?

The retirement of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and George Weah’s election as her successor open a new chapter for a country that has made great strides since its brutal civil war, but where progress remains tenuous.

April 2018, Volume 29, Issue 2

Kenya’s Electoral Misfire

Sophisticated technology could not keep Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election from leading to renewed ethnic tensions and a painful standoff from which the country appears only now to be emerging. What went wrong?

October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4

Iran’s 2017 Election: Waning Democratic Hopes

Wrongly viewed by many media sources as a victory for “reform” and “openness,” the recent presidential election in Iran actually reflected the demoralization and disengagement of the country’s prodemocratic opposition.

October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4

South Korea After Impeachment

After a presidential corruption scandal sparked peaceful mass protests leading to the impeachment and removal of the incumbent, South Koreans went to the polls to choose her successor. Was this drama a window on the troubles of South Korean democracy, or a testament to its strength and resilience?

July 2017, Volume 28, Issue 3

Turkmenistan: Grasping for Legitimacy

Turkmenistan’s authoritarian president Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov attempted to use sham democratic elections in February 2017 to bolster his legitimacy both at home and abroad. 

April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2

The 2016 U.S. Election: The Nomination Game

Since the 1970s, the U.S. presidential-nomination system has become more democratic, making primary elections crucial, reducing the influence of political parties, and making it easier for outsiders to win.

April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2

Nicaragua: A Return to Caudillismo

With the ruling FSLN’s one-sided triumph in the November 2016 elections, Nicaraguan democracy underwent further erosion. The emerging authoritarian party-state, far from being a leftist revolutionary government, is becoming a neopatrimonial dictatorship in an older Latin American style.

January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1

Tunisia’s Islamists and the “Turkish Model”

Ennahda has long felt an especially strong kinship with Turkey’s AKP, which has seen as representing a combination of piety, prosperity, and democratic credibility. How might their relationship be affected by the AKP's more recent authoritarian turn?

January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1

The Never-Boring Balkans: The Elections of 2016

Once Europe’s most painful “problem” area, the Balkans have managed to make strides toward stability, democracy, and integration into the West over the last fifteen or so years. But Moscow is becoming increasingly active in the region, and the durability of these gains should not be taken for granted.

January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1

The Rise of “Localism” in Hong Kong

The September 2016 Legislative Council election marked the rise of a new political force that emphasizes the specific interests and identity of Hong Kong. It has especially been championed by many of the young people who swelled 2014’s Umbrella Movement protests.

April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2

Latin America’s New Turbulence: The End of the Kirchner Era

With a skillfully conveyed message of managerial competence and an electorate disenchanted by a floundering economy and the outgoing incumbent’s confrontational style, Mauricio Macri demonstrated that a non-Peronist can win Argentina’s presidency.

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April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2

Burma Votes for Change: The Challenges Ahead

Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy swept Burma’s November 2015 elections. Will the new NLD-led government be able to live up to high expectations that it will deliver better governance, national reconciliation, and some form of federalism?

April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2

Turkey’s Two Elections: The AKP Comes Back

In power since 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seemed as if it might be losing its hold when Turkish voters went to the polls in June 2015. Yet that “hung election” gave way to another contest in November, and the AKP came roaring back.

January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1

Ethiopia: Silencing Dissent

Ethiopia’s ruling party has long been tightening its grip, using antiterrorism laws and harsh restrictions on media and civil society to silence voices critical of the regime.

January 2016, Volume 27, Issue 1

A Win for Democracy in Sri Lanka

The surprising electoral defeat of President Mahinda Rajapaksa in January 2015 was reinforced by his failed comeback in August parliamentary elections.

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July 2015, Volume 26, Issue 3

Rwanda: Progress or Powder Keg?

Rwanda under Paul Kagame has been hailed for its visionary leadership, economic progress, and reforms in education, health, and agriculture. Yet the regime’s autocratic rule, human-rights abuses, persecution of the Hutu majority, and growing inequality point to an ominous future.

April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2

Patching Things Up in Mozambique

Although elections take place on schedule in Mozambique, they are of dubious quality, and the most recent one was held amid an uneasy peace following renewed outbursts of civil strife. Major new gas and mineral finds promise a shot at greater prosperity, but also hold the threat of a “resource curse.”