January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1
Exchange: Why the Future Cannot Be Predicted
Christian Welzel’s case for a democratic future is based on the mistaken notion that opinion surveys can see the future. It is no more true today than it ever was.
Subject: Public opinion
January 2022, Volume 33, Issue 1
Exchange: Why the Future Is (Still) Democratic
The “democratic deconsolidation” thesis is overblown. Emancipative values continue to spread worldwide, and clearly point to brighter democratic days ahead.
October 2021, Volume 32, Issue 4
Trading Democracy for Governance
Majorities across the globe claim to support democratic rule, but their definitions of it vary widely. A look at where publics are willing to exchange their democratic principles for better results—and where they will not.
October 2021, Volume 32, Issue 4
Democratic Support, Populism, and the Incumbency Effect
A Europe-wide study shows that those who back the incumbent are more likely to oppose democratic norms. The effect is strongest among those who favor right-wing populists.
July 2021, Volume 32, Issue 3
How Authoritarians Inflate Their Image
Authoritarian propaganda and manipulation are leading democratic publics to see foreign autocracies as more powerful than they actually are.
July 2021, Volume 32, Issue 3
Africans’ Durable Demand for Democracy
The latest survey wave finds Africans with a still-robust demand for democratic governance, unblunted by covid or Chinese influence. Can governments deliver?
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
The Americas: When Do Voters Support Power Grabs?
Recent survey research suggests that most voters disapprove of antidemocratic acts by elected leaders. Yet there are critical exceptions when a significant minority of voters are sympathetic to or even supportive of violations of democratic laws and norms.
April 2021, Volume 32, Issue 2
Why the Future Is Democratic
The swelling pessimism about democracy’s future is unwarranted. Values focused on human freedom are spreading throughout the world, and suggest that the future of self-government is actually quite bright.
July 2020, Volume 31, Issue 3
Social Media Disruption: Messaging Mistrust in Latin America
In Latin America, greater exposure to social media—and the digital misinformation that comes with it—seems to be bolstering prodemocratic attitudes even as it fuels public distrust in democratic institutions.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
The Squeeze on African Media Freedom
Sub-Saharan African governments are clamping down on media freedom. More surprising is how many of their citizens appear to support this attack on the press.
April 2020, Volume 31, Issue 2
A Lost Decade for Third-Wave Democracies?
Ordinary citizens in East Asia, Latin America, and Africa are increasingly disappointed with democracy and its ability to deliver.
January 2020, Volume 31, Issue 1
The Puzzle of Authoritarian Legitimacy
Why do East and Southeast Asia’s autocracies enjoy more support from their publics than do the region’s democracies?
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Aspirations and Realities in Africa: Five Reflections
Three decades after sub-Saharan Africa joined the “third wave,” democracy’s ability to endure has been established in many countries, but its quality remains a grave concern.
July 2019, Volume 30, Issue 3
Aspirations and Realities in Africa: Democratic Delivery Falls Short
Data from the latest wave of the Afrobarometer survey show that Africans’ demand for liberal democracy remains high. The problem lies in lagging supply.
April 2019, Volume 30, Issue 2
30 Years After Tiananmen: The Young and the Restless
The CCP’s strategies for delivering economic and social benefits without democracy are proving deeply flawed. A particular threat to China’s stability is posed by the country’s restless single males.
October 2018, Volume 29, Issue 4
Latin America’s Shifting Politics: Democratic Survival and Weakness
Democracy is enduring in Latin America, but it cannot be said to be prospering. Illiberalism and polarization are rising. Yet core democratic institutions remain firmly in place, and therein lies hope.
October 2018, Volume 29, Issue 4
Liberal Democracy’s Crisis of Confidence
Public-opinion data from Pew Research Center show that global support for representative democracy is widespread, but often thin. Amid rising economic anxiety, cultural unease, and political frustration, citizens are increasingly open to alternative systems of government.
January 2018, Volume 29, Issue 1
Dashed Hopes and Extremism in Tunisia
Tunisia is now one of the Arab world’s most democratic countries, but it has also been producing worrisome numbers of recruits for groups such as ISIS. How can this paradox be explained?
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
Eroding Norms and Democratic Deconsolidation
“Democratic deconsolidation” on the level of attitudes and beliefs is real, and behind it lies a disturbing rise in tolerance for antisocial behavior, especially among the young.
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
The Kremlin Emboldened: Putinism After Crimea
“The pursuit of national glory,” which M. Steven Fish counts among the features of Vladimir Putin’s “populism,” is emerging as central to the regime’s legitimation. Unlike previous instances of patriotic mobilization (around the Second Chechen War and the 2008 Georgia war), the current one appears to have evolved into a permanent structure sustaining Putin’s regime.…
October 2017, Volume 28, Issue 4
The Kremlin Emboldened: How Putin Wins Support
The Kremlin’s ability to maintain power and popularity despite an aging leader, an ailing economy, a rallying opposition, and many other domestic and international challenges is puzzling given current theories of authoritarianism. These theories focus on some combination of material interests, institutional engineering, and the charisma and skill of the dictator himself. A close examination…
April 2017, Volume 28, Issue 2
The 2016 U.S. Election: How Trump Lost and Won
Three factors help to explain the historically wide split between the electoral and popular vote counts: economic and political fundamentals, polarization among voters over identity issues, and the sharply divergent ways in which the candidates chose to address these issues.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
The Signs of Deconsolidation
Political scientists have long assumed that “democratic consolidation” is a one-way street, but survey evidence of declining support for democracy from across the established democracies suggests that deconsolidation is a genuine danger.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
Britain After Brexit: The Risk to Northern Ireland
The British decision to leave the EU raises difficult challenges for the still-delicate settlement upon which peace and stability in Northern Ireland depend.
January 2017, Volume 28, Issue 1
Britain After Brexit: A Transformed Political Landscape
The British party system is being fundamentally reshaped by the consequences of the British decision to leave the EU, which also threatens to reduce Britain’s influence on the rest of the world.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
The Danger of Deconsolidation: The Democratic Disconnect
Is democratic deconsolidation underway in the United States and Europe? In recent years, support for democracy, especially among millennials, has been dwindling in a number of established democracies.
July 2016, Volume 27, Issue 3
The Struggle Over Term Limits in Africa: The Power of Protest
As more and more African presidents attempt to remove or circumvent constitutional term limits, African populations increasingly are mobilizing en masse, at great risk, to defend their constitutions.
April 2016, Volume 27, Issue 2
Burma Votes for Change: Clashing Attitudes Toward Democracy
What does public opinion tell us about Burma’s longer-term prospects for democracy? The Asian Barometer Survey reveals contradictory attitudes regarding democracy and democratic values among the citizens of Burma.
October 2015, Volume 26, Issue 4
After the Arab Spring: People Still Want Democracy
Data from the Arab Barometer suggest that Arabs have not rejected democracy. In fact, they still by and large believe in it and want it.
April 2015, Volume 26, Issue 2
Millennials and East Asia’s Democratic Future
East Asia’s millennials have grown up in an age of rapid socioeconomic progress, allowing them to become better educated, more urbanized, and more technologically connected than previous generations. Will they use their collective power to become agents of democratic change?
July 2013, Volume 24, Issue 3
Kenya’s 2013 Elections: Choosing Peace over Democracy
In March 2013, Kenyans took to the polls in what turned out to be another disputed election. Why did the peace hold this time, unlike in 2007, and what are the implications for democracy in Kenya?
April 2013, Volume 24, Issue 2
Southeast Asia: Sources of Regime Support
Data from the latest wave of the Asian Barometer Survey show commonalities and variations in the sources of regime support in Southeast Asian countries. Most regimes—democracies and nondemocracies alike—draw political legitimacy from perceptions of effective and upright governance.
October 2012, Volume 23, Issue 4
New Findings on Arabs and Democracy
The second wave of the Arab Barometer reveals strong and steady support for democracy in the Arab World but a deficit in democratic culture.
July 2012, Volume 23, Issue 3
Putinism Under Siege: The Protesters and the Public
After the December 2011 State Duma elections, the Russian opposition and civil society quickly launched large protest rallies in response to electoral fraud.
January 2011, Volume 22, Issue 1
Latin America: A Surge to the Center
The left-right ideological divide has begun to narrow in Latin America as citizens and leaders increasingly choose a pragmatic approach to politics and embrace the rules of the democratic game.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
The Meanings of Democracy: Introduction
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
The Meanings of Democracy: Anchoring the “D-Word” in Africa
Efforts to do comparative research on political attitudes have been complicated by varying understandings of “democracy.” The Afrobarometer is exploring new techniques to overcome this difficulty.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
The Meanings of Democracy: Solving an Asian Puzzle
Over the years, the Asian Barometer Survey has yielded some surprising results. A new typological analysis helps to make sense of them.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
The Meanings of Democracy: The Shadow of Confucianism
How can Chinese claim strongly to support both democracy and their authoritarian regime? The answer may lie in a Confucian concept of democracy.
October 2010, Volume 21, Issue 4
The Meanings of Democracy: What Arabs Think
Arabs express a clear preference for democracy, which they define in ways similar to citizens elsewhere in the world. But their authoritarian regimes are not listening.
July 2010, Volume 21, Issue 3
Political Attitudes in the Muslim World
A new look at the World Values Survey data reveals how the Muslim world’s religious context affects individual Muslims’ attitudes toward democracy.
April 2008, Volume 19, Issue 2
Public Opinion and Democratic Legitimacy
Do young democracies have to "deliver the goods" economically in order to win political legitimacy in their citizens' eyes? Public opinion data from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Arab world suggest some fascinating answers.
January 2008, Volume 19, Issue 1
The Democracy Barometers (Part II): Surveying South Asia
While the people of South Asia, especially those with higher levels of education and exposure to the media, prefer democracy to authoritarianism, they are willing to relax some of the requirements of liberal democracy.
January 2008, Volume 19, Issue 1
The Democracy Barometers (Part II): Attitudes in the Arab World
Findings from the Arab Barometer say little about whether there are likely to be transitions to democracy in the Arab world in the years ahead, but they do offer evidence that citizens' attitudes and values are not the reason that authoritarianism has persisted.
January 2008, Volume 19, Issue 1
The Democracy Barometers (Part II): Latin America’s Diversity of Views
Attitudes toward democracy in Latin America vary from country to country, and within countries between left and right. Public opinion is strongly affected by the success or failure of political leaders in delivering social and economic change.
January 2008, Volume 19, Issue 1
The Role of Ordinary People in Democratization
In order for a country to move beyond mere electoral democracy, ordinary people must acquire resources and values that allow them to pressure elites. Human empowerment is essential for the development of "effective democracy."
October 2007, Volume 18, Issue 4
Understanding Democracy: Data from Unlikely Places
Some skeptics have asked whether ordinary people possess an understanding of democracy that allows them to evaluate it as a form of government. Our research yields three generalizations about popular understanding of democracy.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I)
The Editors’ introduction to the first of two clusters on “The Democracy Barometers.”
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): Authoritarian Nostalgia in Asia
East Asia’s “third-wave” democracies are in distress, and the economic success of nondemocratic regimes in the region creates a tough standard for comparison.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): Formal versus Informal Institutions in Africa
Survey data indicate that Africans support democracy and its formal institutions, but also point to the importance of the informal realm, particularly when formal institutions fail to meet popular expectations.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): The Rise of Populism and the Left in Latin America
By world standards, Latin Americans ideologically are slightly to the right. But their attitudes are moving leftward, a trend with potential implications for democratic stability in the region.
July 2007, Volume 18, Issue 3
The Democracy Barometers (Part I): Learning to Support New Regimes in Europe
After a decade and a half, how do citizens of postcommunist Europe now feel toward their new governing regimes?
July 2005, Volume 16, Issue 3
Gauging Arab Support for Democracy
Despite some moves toward liberalization in the past three decades, all Arab-majority countries remain authoritarian. Nonetheless, opinion surveys show that popular support for democracy in this part of the world is high.
April 2003, Volume 14, Issue 2
Latin America’s Lost Illusions: A Road with No Return?
What can public-opinion research tell us about the staying power of democracy in the region? Has it passed the point of any possible return to authoritarianism?
January 2003, Volume 14, Issue 1
The Deadlock in Iran: Pressures from Below
Despite today’s gridlock, there are grounds for hope in the widespread embrace of democratic ideals by young people.
July 2002, Volume 13, Issue 3
Democracy in Real Time
Globalization has fostered the spread of “democracy as procedure,” but it is much less favorable to the spread of “democracy as culture.”
April 2002, Volume 13, Issue 2
Cracks in the Middle Kingdom
A review of Bad Elements: Chinese Rebels from Los Angeles to Beijing. By Ian Buruma.
October 2001, Volume 12, Issue 4
Public Opinion and Direct Democracy
Direct democracy has come in for praise as being closer to the people’s will than representative democracy. A closer look at the sources of public support, however, reveals some surprises.
January 2001, Volume 12, Issue 1
Democracy as a Starting Point
Democracy by itself does not put an end to injustice or inequality, but it establishes the most favorable conditions for making progress in the struggle to achieve a just society.
January 2001, Volume 12, Issue 1
How People View Democracy: A Diverging Europe
Citizens of postcommunist countries not only want to be free to say what they think and to vote their conscience; they also want a government that obeys the rules it lays down and is not steeped in corruption.
January 2001, Volume 12, Issue 1
How People View Democracy: Africans’ Surprising Universalism
Although Africa is a latecomer to democratization, Africans overwhelmingly support democracy, and their conception of democracy is surprisingly liberal.
January 2001, Volume 12, Issue 1
How People View Democracy: Halting Progress in Korea and Taiwan
Judging from their citizens’ middling levels of support for and satisfaction with democracy, both Korea and Taiwan are still far from democratic consolidation.
January 2001, Volume 12, Issue 1
How People View Democracy: Between Stability and Crisis in Latin America
Across Latin America, public support for democracy has been remarkably stable and consistently higher than satisfaction with the way that democracy works. Low institutional trust reflects even lower levels of interpersonal trust.
October 1999, Volume 10, Issue 4
The Drama of Democratization
July 1999, Volume 10, Issue 3
The Churchill Hypothesis
Review of Democracy and Its Alternatives: Understanding Post-Communist Societies, by Richard Rose, William Mishler, and Christian Haerpfer.
April 1998, Volume 9, Issue 2
Korea: Triumph Amid Turmoil
January 1998, Volume 9, Issue 1
Consolidation and Public Opinion in South Africa
July 1997, Volume 8, Issue 3
Public Opinion in New Democracies: Where Are Postcommunist Countries Going?
July 1997, Volume 8, Issue 3
Public Opinion in New Democracies: Political Ambivalence in South Korea and Taiwan
July 1997, Volume 8, Issue 3
Public Opinion in New Democracies: Latin America’s Smiling Mask
April 1997, Volume 8, Issue 2
Hong Kong, Singapore, and “Asian Values”: Why Asia Needs Democracy
April 1997, Volume 8, Issue 2
Tensions and Trade-Offs in Latin America
October 1995, Volume 6, Issue 4
Singapore and the “Asian Values” Debate
July 1995, Volume 6, Issue 3
The Western Allies 50 Years Later: Malaise and Resiliency in America
January 1995, Volume 6, Issue 1
Redemocratization in Chile
July 1994, Volume 5, Issue 3
Rethinking Civil Society: Postcommunism and the Problem of Trust
January 1994, Volume 5, Issue 1
The Axis Powers 50 Years Later: Germany—A New “Wall in the Mind”?
January 1994, Volume 5, Issue 1
Senegal’s Empty Elections
January 1993, Volume 4, Issue 1
Peru’s Presidential Coup
January 1992, Volume 3, Issue 1
The New Germany
Summer 1991, Volume 2, Issue 3
Postcommunist Politics in Hungary
Summer 1991, Volume 2, Issue 3
Africa’s Second Independence
Spring 1991, Volume 2, Issue 2
Nigeria’s Search for a New Political Order
Summer 1990, Volume 1, Issue 3
Third World Communism in Crisis: Reform Runs Aground in Vietnam
Summer 1990, Volume 1, Issue 3
The Return of Russian Nationalism
Winter 1990, Volume 1, Issue 1
Tiananmen and Beyond: China’s Great Leap Backward
This past spring the world looked on in wonder as millions filled the streets of Beijing and 80 other Chinese cities, defying the Communist regime and demanding democracy.
The Signs of Democratic Deconsolidation
In many parts of the world, democracy seems to be under threat. Populism is on the rise, as is public dissatisfaction with such key features of liberal democracy as political parties, representative institutions, and minority rights. Even in the long-established democratic regimes of Western Europe and the United States, attachment to democracy is weakening, particularly…
January 10, 2017